Dark Futurology on China

I participated recently in two very interesting sessions on the future of China. In these sessions, various excellent China experts provided their views on how China will evolve. My summary of these views regarding the massive topic is that the expert view has shifted slightly. China is no more unpredictable than before. At the same time, experts emphasized understandably the slow and perhaps inevitable development of China towards an increasingly powerful and confident China that is well-aware of its internal issues, fixing these issues at times rapidly. The expert views were well-grounded and researched. Nevertheless, in the light of massive misunderstanding of Russian preferences, I started to wonder if we should in any case talk more about possible fringe scenarios. Indeed, I think that the only relevant outcome to draw from the Russian attack on Ukraine, regarding China, is that we cannot be sure we understand the mindsets of the people across the table. This text discusses some unlikely events in China and their potential outcomes. The premise behind these events is that Chinese leaders have a mindset that is very different from what we expect.

The three speculative developments that the Chinese themselves have been talking about constantly are titled here as “Communism was always the goal”, “Civil war never ended and “Total control”. While the experts shy away from such dark scenarios or consider them too implausible, I think it useful to imagine the implications of these scenarios to come up with ways to inhibit them and their consequences.

Communism was always the goal

The “Communism was always the goal” scenario posits that Chinese leaders have always been committed to achieving a true communist society, despite the fact that the country has embraced capitalist economic policies in recent decades. This view is rooted in the history of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which has always been committed to the ideals of communism as espoused by Marx and Lenin. Indeed, the Communist Party of China has always maintained that its ultimate goal is to establish a communist society in the country. This goal was first articulated by Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People’s Republic of China, who declared that “communism is the ultimate goal of the Chinese people” in 1949.

Mao’s communist ideals were temporarily overshadowed by the economic reforms of the 1980s, which introduced elements of capitalism into the Chinese economy. However, these reforms were always framed as a means to an end, a tool to be used in the pursuit of communism. As Xi Jinping, the current leader of the Communist Party and the son of one of Mao’s close allies, has said, “we must not forget our original intention, and must constantly strive for the realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

In recent years, the Communist Party has begun to take concrete steps towards achieving this goal, with a renewed emphasis on socialism and the nationalization of key industries. For example, the state-owned enterprises that were partially privatized in the 1980s are now being re-nationalized, and the government has increased its control over the economy through measures such as the creation of new regulatory bodies and the implementation of strict control over foreign investment.

What if the Chinese would one day announce that they change their system to full communism?If this scenario were to come to pass, it would mark a significant departure from the more market-oriented policies that have been pursued in recent decades, and could have major implications for the global economy. Implications include the nationalization of all assets in the country, as well as a more centralized and authoritarian form of government. Nationalization of all factories would pose massive problems to the global supply chain. China would then need to decide if they prefer to close down their borders completely (unlikely) or negotiate essential trade with other countries case-by-case.

While the Communist Party’s ultimate goal of establishing a communist society may seem ambitious, or even impossible, to outsiders, it remains a deeply-held belief among the Chinese leadership. President Xi Jinping, for example, has repeatedly emphasized the importance of building a “strong and prosperous socialist country” in his speeches and policy statements. He has also pushed for greater centralization of power within the party, arguing that this is necessary in order to achieve the goal of communism.

Civil war never ended

The “Civil war never ended” narrative is a commonly held belief among some Chinese leaders and scholars. According to this perspective, the Chinese Civil War, which ended in 1949 with the victory of the Communist Party, was merely a temporary ceasefire in a much longer struggle for national unity and sovereignty.

From this perspective, Taiwan, which was ruled by the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) following their defeat in the Civil War, is considered a breakaway province that must eventually be united with the mainland. The “one country, two systems” framework, which allows for the semi-autonomous governance of Hong Kong and Macau, is seen as a model for achieving this unification.

However, recent events in Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of Crimea have raised concerns among some Chinese leaders that a rapid move to pressure Taiwan into reunification could result in military intervention by the United States. As a result, so far China has adopted a more cautious approach, focusing on economic integration and diplomatic efforts to isolate Taiwan internationally.

At the same time, some within the Chinese leadership are reportedly considering more aggressive options, including the use of military force, to achieve unification. A conventional military attack on Taiwan would be difficult and costly. Thus, the potential use of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out as an option. It is unclear how the United States and other powers would react to such a scenario. The potential consequences are difficult to predict. Because China is connected to the Global North in a wide range of ways, it’s possible that the countries in the Global North cannot completely reject collaborating with China even after such a radical move.

Total control

In the final segment titled “Total Control,” I explore the idea that the Chinese government has been working towards complete control of its population through the use of data-based platforms and surveillance. This idea is best exemplified in the Xinjiang region, where a vast network of surveillance cameras and artificial intelligence technology is used to monitor and control the population. These measures to exert greater control over its population has included the widespread use of surveillance technology, such as facial recognition and GPS tracking, as well as the establishment of internment camps where minority groups, including Uighurs and Kazakhs, are held without due process. These practices were also implemented thoughout China during the COVID-19 outbreak, leading some to speculate that the Chinese government is working towards a state of total control. The Chinese government has justified these measures as necessary for maintaining social stability and combating terrorism, but human rights groups have criticized them as part of a broader campaign of repression and abuse. The Chinese government has defended these practices as necessary for maintaining stability, but the international community remains wary of the potential consequences.

As technology continues to advance, China is likely to develop increasingly sophisticated tools for monitoring and controlling its population. This could include the use of AI and big data analytics to predict and pre-empt potential threats, as well as the deployment of advanced facial recognition systems that can identify individuals even when they are wearing masks or attempting to disguise themselves.

The potential implications of such technologies are alarming, as they could enable the Chinese government to achieve a level of control over its population that would be difficult to imagine even in the most repressive regimes. Furthermore, many other regimes are already buying Chinese solutions to crowd control. But who decides how these tools work? It is already possible to manipulate, say, the precise news environment of individual citizens, to guide them towards more favorable mental models and schemas.

The total control scenario described in the text, in which the Chinese government uses AI and data processing technologies to exert even more total control over its population, is plausible given the capabilities of current AI technology. For example, approximately 70% of this text was generated by ChatGPT, a large language model trained by OpenAI, admittedly with very precise prompts. I (Johannes Koponen) have edited and restructured these segments after OpenAI provided me with this estimation.

Dark futurology on China

In conclusion, the possibility of China turning towards communism, continuing the civil war with Taiwan, or achieving total control of its population are unlikely events. However, the recent misunderstanding of Russian preferences and the shifting expert view on China’s predictability suggests that it is worth considering these scenarios and their potential implications. While it is important to base our understanding of China on well-researched and grounded expert views, it is also necessary to be open to the possibility of fringe scenarios and to plan for potential outcomes. By doing so, we can better prepare for and inhibit any negative consequences of these scenarios, should they come to pass.

Some general suggestions from ChatGPT include:

• Monitoring and analyzing developments in China closely, in order to better understand the country’s motivations, goals, and potential actions.
• Engaging in dialogue and diplomacy with Chinese leaders and officials to communicate concerns and explore potential solutions.
• Developing contingency plans and strategies for dealing with potential disruptions to the global economy and supply chain.
• Building international coalitions and partnerships to address potential challenges and threats posed by China.
• Investing in research and development to strengthen technological and economic resilience, and to stay ahead of potential developments in China.

However, these are litany-level suggestions that an AI can provide. The deeper, discursive level learnings could include suggestions (from me) such as

• understanding that misreading the values and preferences of Chinese can have grave consequences

Furthermore, there are a few practical consequences of these scenarios:

• mitigation of the risk that the Chinese aim at something we cannot really comprehend starts with practical actions instead of plans and coalitions. Strategic autonomy and resilience are created by day-to-day decisions that emphasize local capabilities and resources.
• a clear idea of the absolutely necessary interlinkages with the Chinese help to understand what is at stake from our perspective: do we *really* need iPhones? Solar panels? Production capabilities?

The prosperity of Global North is currently tied to the success of China. We need to make sure that we have similar definitions of success and we need to ensure we are sufficient resilient in in domains were this definition differs.